Consumer durable loan disbursals at Bajaj Finance partner stores in Maharashtra fell 15% in Diwali week. What happened?

Introduction

Festive season is the most important period of the year for Bajaj Finance's consumer durable business. Diwali week alone can account for a large share of the quarter's TV, refrigerator, and smartphone loans. So when a dashboard shows that consumer durable loans disbursed at partner stores in Maharashtra are down 15% week-over-week during Diwali week, while the rest of India is flat, it gets leadership's attention fast.

The question: diagnose the drop. I'll clarify the metric, rule out external factors, map the journey, break down the metric, prioritise data, form hypotheses, find the root cause, validate it, and propose a fix.

Step 1

Clarifying Questions (3 minutes)

• What exactly dropped: applications, approvals, or disbursals?

Why it matters: Each points to a different part of the system. Expected answer: Disbursals are down 15%. Applications are down only 3%. Impact on approach: The problem sits between application and disbursal.

• Is it week-over-week or year-over-year?

Why it matters: Diwali timing shifts each year. Expected answer: Both. Versus the same festive week last year, Maharashtra is down 12% while other states are up 8%. Impact on approach: Seasonality alone cannot explain it.

• Is the drop across all stores and categories in Maharashtra?

Expected answer: It's concentrated in large-format chains and in smartphones and TVs; small stores are less affected. Impact on approach: Look at what differs between chains and small stores.

• Any recent launches or changes?

Expected answer: A new version of the representative's sales app went live in Maharashtra and Gujarat ten days ago. A risk policy update on new-to-credit customers went national two weeks ago. Impact on approach: Two strong candidates, one regional and one national.