What's causing the sudden 30% drop in new rider sign-ups for Deliveroo in Paris this week?

Introduction

The sudden 30% drop in new rider sign-ups for Deliveroo in Paris this week is a critical issue that demands immediate attention. This analysis will systematically identify, validate, and address the root cause while considering both short-term and long-term implications for the business.

I'll approach this problem by first clarifying the context, then ruling out external factors before diving deep into internal metrics, user journey analysis, and data-driven hypothesis formation. We'll then validate these hypotheses and develop a comprehensive action plan.

Step 1

Clarifying Questions (3 minutes)

• Looking at the timing, I'm thinking this could be a recent change. Has there been any significant product update or marketing campaign in the past week?

Why it matters: Recent changes often correlate with sudden metric shifts. Expected answer: Yes, a new app version was released. Impact on approach: If yes, we'd focus on the changes in that release.

• Considering the location specificity, I'm curious about local factors. Have there been any notable events or changes in Paris recently that could affect food delivery?

Why it matters: Local events can significantly impact user behavior. Expected answer: A major food festival started last week. Impact on approach: If yes, we'd investigate how this event might be affecting sign-ups.

• Given the magnitude of the drop, I'm wondering about our measurement accuracy. Has there been any change in how we track or define new rider sign-ups?

Why it matters: Metric definition changes can cause apparent shifts in data. Expected answer: No changes in measurement. Impact on approach: If there were changes, we'd need to reassess our data interpretation.

• Thinking about user segments, I'm curious if this drop is uniform across all potential rider types. Do we see any differences in sign-up rates between students, part-time workers, and full-time job seekers?

Why it matters: Different segments may be affected by different factors. Expected answer: The drop is more pronounced among student sign-ups. Impact on approach: If segmented, we'd focus on factors specifically affecting the most impacted group.