You're the PM of Facebook Birthdays. Birthday greetings drop one day; what do you do?

Introduction

The sudden drop in Facebook Birthday greetings presents a critical issue that demands immediate attention. As the PM of Facebook Birthdays, I'll employ a systematic approach to identify, validate, and address the root cause while considering both short-term fixes and long-term implications for the feature and broader platform.

I'll begin by clarifying the situation, rule out external factors, analyze the product and user journey, break down relevant metrics, gather essential data, form hypotheses, conduct root cause analysis, propose validation methods, and outline a comprehensive resolution plan.

Step 1

Clarifying Questions (3 minutes)

• What's the exact percentage drop in birthday greetings?

Why it matters: Quantifies the severity of the issue. Hypothetical answer: 30% decrease compared to the previous week. Impact: Helps prioritize the urgency of our response.

• When did we first notice this drop?

Why it matters: Establishes a timeline for investigation. Hypothetical answer: The drop was observed yesterday. Impact: Narrows down potential causes to recent changes or events.

• Are all user segments equally affected?

Why it matters: Identifies if the issue is universal or specific to certain groups. Hypothetical answer: The drop is consistent across all demographics and regions. Impact: Suggests a platform-wide issue rather than a localized problem.

• Have there been any recent product updates or backend changes?

Why it matters: Pinpoints potential internal causes. Hypothetical answer: A minor UI update was rolled out three days ago. Impact: Provides a starting point for technical investigation.

• Has the definition or measurement of "birthday greetings" changed recently?

Why it matters: Ensures we're comparing apples to apples. Hypothetical answer: No changes in definition or measurement in the past six months. Impact: Rules out data anomalies as a cause.