You're the head PM of Facebook Groups product. MAP is steady, but DAP has declined by 20%. This trend has gradually occurred over the last 3 months. What do you want to do next?

Introduction

The Facebook Groups product is facing a significant challenge with a 20% decline in Daily Active People (DAP) over the past three months, while Monthly Active People (MAP) remains steady. This situation requires a thorough investigation to identify the root cause and develop effective solutions. I'll approach this issue systematically, focusing on data analysis, hypothesis generation, and strategic decision-making.

Step 1

Clarifying Questions (3 minutes)

• Has there been any change in the definition or measurement of DAP recently?

• Are there specific user segments or regions more affected by this decline?

• Have we introduced any new features or changes to the Groups product in the last 3-4 months?

• How does the 20% DAP decline compare to overall Facebook platform engagement trends?

Why these questions matter:

1. Ensures we're working with consistent metrics
2. Helps identify potential localized issues
3. Could reveal direct causes of user behavior changes
4. Provides context for the Groups-specific decline

Hypothetical answers:

1. No changes in DAP definition or measurement
2. Decline is relatively uniform across segments
3. A new content moderation system was implemented 4 months ago
4. Overall Facebook engagement is down 5% in the same period

These answers would guide us to focus on internal factors, particularly the new moderation system, while also considering broader platform trends.

Step 2

Rule Out Basic External Factors (3 minutes)

Reasoning:

• Seasonal trends: Unlikely due to steady MAP
• New competitor: Potential cause, requires further investigation
• Economic factors: Would likely affect MAP as well
• Technical issues: No reported major outages aligning with the decline

We'll keep the potential new competitor in mind but focus primarily on internal factors given the discrepancy between DAP and MAP.

Step 3

Product Understanding and User Journey (3 minutes)

Facebook Groups is a community-building feature that allows users to connect around shared interests. The core value proposition is fostering meaningful interactions and content sharing within niche communities.

Typical user journey:

1. Discover or join a group
2. Consume content (posts, photos, videos)
3. Engage with content (likes, comments, shares)
4. Create content
5. Invite others or participate in group events

DAP is crucial as it reflects daily engagement and the "stickiness" of the Groups product. The decline suggests users are finding less reason to return daily, despite maintaining monthly connections.

Step 4

Metric Breakdown (3 minutes)

DAP for Groups is defined as the number of unique users who interact with any Facebook Group on a given day. This can be broken down into:

Factors contributing to DAP:

• Group discovery and joining rate
• Content quality and relevance
• Notification effectiveness
• User interface and experience
• Group activity levels

We should segment the data by:

• User demographics (age, location)
• Group size and activity level
• Content types (text, image, video)
• User roles (admin, member)

Step 5

Data Gathering and Prioritization (3 minutes)

Prioritization reasoning:

• Daily engagement directly relates to DAP
• Content creation impacts overall group activity
• User feedback provides qualitative insights
• Notification effectiveness influences daily returns
• New user acquisition is less relevant given steady MAP

Step 6

Hypothesis Formation (6 minutes)

1. Technical Hypothesis: The new content moderation system is over-filtering content, reducing visible activity in groups.

   • Evidence: Timing aligns with system implementation
   • Impact: High - directly affects content visibility
   • Validation: Analyze content removal rates and user reports of missing posts

2. User Behavior Hypothesis: Users are shifting towards passive consumption rather than active engagement.

   • Evidence: Potential decrease in content creation metrics
   • Impact: Medium - affects engagement but not necessarily visits
   • Validation: Compare ratios of creators to consumers over time

3. Product Change Hypothesis: Recent UI changes have made daily group interactions less intuitive or appealing.

   • Evidence: Correlation with any recent UX updates
   • Impact: High - directly affects user experience and ease of use
   • Validation: Analyze user flow changes and time spent in groups

4. External Factor Hypothesis: A new competitor is drawing daily active users away from Facebook Groups.

   • Evidence: Market research on competitor growth
   • Impact: Medium - could explain DAP decline with steady MAP
   • Validation: Survey users on alternative platform usage

Prioritization:

1. Technical Hypothesis (highest likelihood and direct impact)
2. Product Change Hypothesis (high impact on user experience)
3. User Behavior Hypothesis (gradual shift explanation)
4. External Factor Hypothesis (requires more market data)

Step 7

Root Cause Analysis (5 minutes)

Applying the "5 Whys" technique to the Technical Hypothesis:

1. Why is DAP declining?

   • Users are seeing less engaging content in their groups.

2. Why are users seeing less engaging content?

   • The volume of visible posts has decreased.

3. Why has the volume of visible posts decreased?

   • The new content moderation system is filtering out more content than before.

4. Why is the moderation system filtering out more content?

   • The algorithms may be too strict or not properly calibrated for group contexts.

5. Why are the algorithms not properly calibrated?

   • Insufficient testing or consideration of group-specific content patterns during development.

This analysis suggests a causal link between the new moderation system and the DAP decline. To differentiate correlation from causation, we'd need to:

• Compare content removal rates before and after the system implementation
• Analyze user engagement patterns with posts that pass moderation
• Conduct A/B tests with different moderation thresholds

Interconnected causes could include:

• User frustration leading to less content creation
• Reduced notifications due to fewer visible posts
• Negative feedback loop of decreased activity leading to less engagement

Based on the timing and potential impact, the Technical Hypothesis seems most likely to be the primary root cause.

Step 8

Validation and Next Steps (5 minutes)

Immediate actions:

• Adjust moderation thresholds to be less strict
• Communicate changes to group admins
• Increase monitoring of user reports on missed content

Short-term solutions:

• Refine moderation algorithms with group-specific rules
• Implement user feedback mechanism for incorrectly moderated content
• Enhance group discovery features to boost engagement

Long-term strategies:

• Develop AI-powered content curation to surface engaging posts
• Create new engagement features tailored to passive users
• Establish a regular audit process for moderation system impact

Risks and trade-offs:

• Looser moderation may increase policy-violating content
• Focus on engagement could sacrifice some content quality
• New features might initially confuse some users

Step 9

Decision Framework (3 minutes)

Step 10

Resolution Plan (2 minutes)

1. Immediate Actions (24-48 hours)

   • Adjust moderation thresholds platform-wide
   • Send communication to all group admins about the changes
   • Set up enhanced monitoring of content quality and user reports

2. Short-term Solutions (1-2 weeks)

   • Conduct rapid usability studies on group interfaces
   • Implement user feedback system for moderation decisions
   • Analyze and optimize notification strategies for groups

3. Long-term Prevention (1-3 months)

   • Develop and test AI-powered engagement features
   • Create a cross-functional task force for ongoing groups health monitoring
   • Establish quarterly audits of moderation system impact on user engagement

Implications:

• Related features: News Feed algorithm may need adjustment for group content visibility
• Broader ecosystem: Learnings could inform moderation strategies across Facebook
• Long-term strategy: Balance between fostering engagement and maintaining content quality

Expand Your Horizon

• How might machine learning be leveraged to predict and prevent DAP declines?

• What strategies could create more symbiosis between individual and group engagement on the platform?

• How can we design metrics that better capture the quality of engagement, not just quantity?

Related Topics

• Community management best practices

• Balancing automation and human moderation

• Engagement metrics beyond DAU/MAU

• User retention strategies in social products

• Privacy considerations in group interactions