Why has Better Mortgage's rate lock volume dropped by 30% in the past month?

Introduction

Better Mortgage's 30% drop in rate lock volume over the past month is a significant issue that demands immediate attention. As we analyze this product problem, we'll follow a systematic framework to identify, validate, and address the root cause while considering both immediate and long-term implications.

I'll approach this issue by first clarifying the context, then ruling out external factors before diving deep into the product itself. We'll break down the metric, gather relevant data, form hypotheses, and conduct a thorough root cause analysis. Finally, we'll develop a comprehensive plan to validate our findings and implement solutions.

Step 1

Clarifying Questions (3 minutes)

• Looking at the timing, I'm thinking there might be seasonal factors at play. Has this 30% drop been compared to the same period last year?

Why it matters: Seasonal trends could explain the fluctuation and impact our approach. Expected answer: Yes, it's been compared and is still significant. Impact on approach: If seasonal, we'd focus on year-over-year comparisons rather than month-over-month.

• Considering the metric specificity, I'm curious about the definition of "rate lock volume." Has there been any recent change in how this metric is calculated or measured?

Why it matters: Ensures we're analyzing the correct data and not a measurement anomaly. Expected answer: No changes in metric definition or measurement. Impact on approach: If changed, we'd need to recalibrate our analysis based on the new definition.

• Given the magnitude of the drop, I'm wondering if this decline is uniform across all user segments or concentrated in specific groups?

Why it matters: Helps identify if the issue is systemic or segment-specific. Expected answer: The decline is more pronounced in first-time homebuyers. Impact on approach: We'd focus our investigation on factors affecting this particular segment.

• Considering potential product changes, have there been any significant updates to the rate lock process or related features in the past 1-2 months?

Why it matters: Recent changes could directly impact user behavior and system performance. Expected answer: A new UI for the rate lock process was implemented 6 weeks ago. Impact on approach: We'd investigate the impact of this UI change on user engagement and conversion.