Why has Better's rate lock volume dropped by 30% over the past month?

Introduction

The recent 30% drop in Better's rate lock volume over the past month is a significant issue that requires immediate attention and a thorough analysis. As we delve into this problem, we'll follow a systematic approach to identify, validate, and address the root cause while considering both short-term and long-term implications for the business.

Our analysis will cover several key areas, including clarifying questions, external factor assessment, product understanding, metric breakdown, data gathering, hypothesis formation, root cause analysis, and solution development. By following this structured framework, we'll ensure a comprehensive examination of the issue and develop actionable insights to address the decline in rate lock volume.

Step 1

Clarifying Questions (3 minutes)

• Looking at the timing, I'm thinking there might be a seasonal trend. Has this 30% drop been compared to the same period last year?

Why it matters: Seasonal patterns could explain the fluctuation and help us determine if this is an anomaly or a recurring trend. Expected answer: Yes, it has been compared, and the drop is still significant. Impact on approach: If seasonal, we'd focus on optimizing for known patterns; if not, we'd investigate other factors more deeply.

• Considering recent market changes, have there been any significant shifts in interest rates or competitor offerings?

Why it matters: External market factors could be driving the decrease in rate lock volume. Expected answer: Interest rates have remained relatively stable, and competitor offerings haven't changed dramatically. Impact on approach: If market factors are stable, we'd focus more on internal issues or user behavior changes.

• Thinking about user segments, has the drop been consistent across all customer types, or is it more pronounced in specific groups?

Why it matters: Identifying affected segments could point to targeted issues or changes in user behavior. Expected answer: The drop is more significant among first-time homebuyers. Impact on approach: We'd investigate factors specifically affecting this segment, such as changes in marketing or product features.

• Considering recent product changes, have there been any updates to the rate lock process or related features in the past month?

Why it matters: Recent changes could have unintended consequences on user behavior or system performance. Expected answer: A minor UI update was implemented two weeks ago. Impact on approach: We'd closely examine the impact of this update on user experience and conversion rates.