What factors are contributing to the sudden 30% decrease in lead submissions through Cars.com's dealer contact forms in the last week?

Introduction

The sudden 30% decrease in lead submissions through Cars.com's dealer contact forms in the last week is a critical issue that demands immediate attention. This significant drop could have far-reaching implications for dealer relationships, revenue, and overall platform performance. I'll approach this problem systematically, focusing on identifying potential root causes, validating hypotheses, and developing both short-term fixes and long-term strategies to address the issue.

Step 1

Clarifying Questions (3 minutes)

• Looking at the timing, I'm thinking this could be a recent change. Has there been any significant update to the dealer contact form or related systems in the past two weeks?

Why it matters: Recent changes often correlate with sudden metric shifts. Expected answer: Yes, there was a form redesign or No, no recent changes. Impact on approach: If yes, we'd focus on the change. If no, we'd look at external factors or gradual issues that reached a tipping point.

• Considering user segments, I'm curious about the distribution. Is this 30% decrease uniform across all dealer types and locations, or are certain segments more affected?

Why it matters: Helps identify if the issue is systemic or localized to specific user groups. Expected answer: It's affecting all dealers equally or It's more pronounced in certain regions/dealer types. Impact on approach: Uniform impact suggests a platform-wide issue, while segmented impact narrows our focus.

• Thinking about seasonality, how does this week's performance compare to the same period last year?

Why it matters: Rules out normal seasonal fluctuations. Expected answer: It's significantly lower than last year or It's consistent with last year's trends. Impact on approach: If consistent with last year, we'd consider cyclical factors. If not, we'd focus on recent changes or market shifts.

• Considering data integrity, has there been any change in how lead submissions are tracked or reported in the last month?

Why it matters: Ensures we're not dealing with a data anomaly rather than an actual performance issue. Expected answer: No changes in tracking or Yes, we recently updated our analytics. Impact on approach: If there were changes, we'd first validate the data before diving deeper into user behavior or technical issues.