What's causing the sudden 30% decrease in new user signups for Delivery Hero's mobile app?

Introduction

The sudden 30% decrease in new user signups for Delivery Hero's mobile app is a critical issue that demands immediate attention. This analysis will systematically identify, validate, and address the root cause while considering both short-term fixes and long-term strategic implications.

I'll approach this problem by first clarifying key details, ruling out external factors, and then diving deep into the product ecosystem, user journey, and relevant metrics. From there, I'll generate data-driven hypotheses, conduct root cause analysis, and propose a structured plan for validation and resolution.

Step 1

Clarifying Questions (3 minutes)

• Looking at the timing, I'm thinking this could be a recent change. When exactly did you first notice this 30% decrease?

Why it matters: Pinpointing the timeframe helps narrow down potential causes. Expected answer: Within the last week or month. Impact on approach: A sudden drop suggests an acute issue, while a gradual decline might indicate a broader trend.

• Considering user segments, I'm wondering if this affects all user types equally. Have you noticed any differences in signup rates across various user demographics or acquisition channels?

Why it matters: Identifying affected segments can reveal targeted issues. Expected answer: The decrease is more pronounced in certain segments or channels. Impact on approach: If specific segments are affected, we'd focus on those user journeys or acquisition strategies.

• Given the significance of the drop, I'm curious about any recent product or system changes. Have there been any updates to the app, backend systems, or marketing campaigns in the past month?

Why it matters: Recent changes often correlate with performance shifts. Expected answer: Yes, there have been some updates or changes. Impact on approach: We'd prioritize investigating those specific changes and their potential impact.

• Thinking about data integrity, I want to ensure we're working with accurate information. Has there been any change in how new user signups are tracked or defined?

Why it matters: Metric definition changes can sometimes explain sudden shifts. Expected answer: No changes in metric definition or tracking. Impact on approach: If there were changes, we'd need to recalibrate our analysis based on the new definition.