Why has the average order value for Gojek's GoFood dropped by 15% in the past month?

Introduction

The recent 15% drop in average order value (AOV) for Gojek's GoFood service over the past month is a significant concern that requires immediate attention and a thorough analysis. As we delve into this issue, we'll employ a systematic approach to identify potential root causes, validate our hypotheses, and develop both short-term and long-term solutions to address the problem.

Our analysis will follow a structured framework, beginning with clarifying questions to ensure we have a comprehensive understanding of the situation. We'll then rule out basic external factors, examine the product and user journey, break down the metric, gather and prioritize data, form hypotheses, conduct root cause analysis, and finally propose validation methods and next steps.

Step 1

Clarifying Questions (3 minutes)

• Looking at the timing, I'm thinking there might have been a recent product change. Has GoFood implemented any significant updates or new features in the past 1-2 months?

Why it matters: Recent changes could directly impact user behavior and order values. Expected answer: Yes, there was a UI redesign or new feature launch. Impact on approach: If yes, we'd focus on analyzing the impact of these changes on user behavior.

• Considering user segments, I'm curious about the distribution of the AOV drop. Is this decline uniform across all user segments, or are certain groups more affected?

Why it matters: Helps identify if the issue is widespread or localized to specific user groups. Expected answer: The decline is more pronounced in certain segments. Impact on approach: If segmented, we'd focus on understanding what's unique about the affected groups.

• Given the metric specifics, I'm wondering about the components of AOV. Has there been a change in the number of items per order, or is it primarily a decrease in the price per item?

Why it matters: Pinpoints whether the issue is related to order composition or pricing. Expected answer: There's been a decrease in both items per order and average item price. Impact on approach: This would guide us to investigate both product selection and pricing strategies.

• Considering external factors, I'm thinking about competitive landscape changes. Have there been any significant moves by competitors in the past month that might have impacted GoFood's market position?

Why it matters: External competitive pressures could be driving the AOV decline. Expected answer: A major competitor launched an aggressive discount campaign. Impact on approach: If yes, we'd need to analyze our pricing and promotion strategies in response.

• Regarding system integrity, I'm curious about the reliability of our data. Have there been any changes in how AOV is calculated or any known issues with our analytics systems?

Why it matters: Ensures we're working with accurate data and not chasing a phantom problem. Expected answer: No changes or issues in data collection or calculation methods. Impact on approach: If there were changes, we'd need to validate the data before proceeding with further analysis.