How can we explain the 30% decline in new customer applications for Home Credit's online installment loans since the website redesign?

Introduction

The 30% decline in new customer applications for Home Credit's online installment loans since the website redesign is a critical issue that demands immediate attention. This analysis will systematically identify, validate, and address the root cause while considering both short-term and long-term implications for the product and business.

I'll approach this problem by first clarifying key details, ruling out external factors, and then diving deep into the product, user journey, and metrics. From there, I'll form data-driven hypotheses, conduct root cause analysis, and propose validation methods and solutions.

Step 1

Clarifying Questions (3 minutes)

• Looking at the timing, I'm thinking the redesign might have introduced usability issues. Can you confirm when exactly the redesign was launched and if it was a full site overhaul or focused on specific areas?

Why it matters: Pinpoints the change that likely triggered the decline. Expected answer: "The redesign launched 6 weeks ago and focused on the application process." Impact on approach: If confirmed, I'll focus on the application flow specifically.

• Considering user segments, I'm wondering if the decline is uniform across all customer types. Have you noticed any differences in application rates between new and returning customers, or across different demographic groups?

Why it matters: Helps identify if the issue affects all users or specific segments. Expected answer: "The decline is more pronounced among new customers, especially younger applicants." Impact on approach: If true, I'll investigate factors that might disproportionately affect new or younger users.

• Given the significance of the decline, I'm curious about any changes in marketing or traffic sources. Has there been any shift in how potential customers are finding and reaching the application page?

Why it matters: Rules out external factors affecting the funnel before the application stage. Expected answer: "Traffic sources and volumes have remained consistent." Impact on approach: If confirmed, I'll focus more on on-site issues rather than acquisition problems.

• Considering potential technical issues, I'm wondering if there have been any reports of increased error rates or page load times since the redesign?

Why it matters: Identifies potential technical root causes. Expected answer: "We've seen a slight increase in page load times, but error rates are stable." Impact on approach: If load times have increased, I'll prioritize performance optimization in my recommendations.