What factors are causing the sudden increase in failed payments for Mollie's recurring billing feature this quarter?

Introduction

The sudden increase in failed payments for Mollie's recurring billing feature this quarter is a critical issue that demands immediate attention. As we delve into this problem, we'll employ a systematic approach to identify, validate, and address the root cause while considering both short-term fixes and long-term strategic implications.

Our analysis will follow a structured framework, beginning with clarifying questions to establish context, followed by a thorough examination of potential external factors. We'll then dissect the product's user journey, break down the relevant metrics, gather and prioritize data, form hypotheses, conduct root cause analysis, and finally propose validation methods and next steps.

Step 1

Clarifying Questions (3 minutes)

• Looking at the timing, I'm thinking there might be a recent change in the payment processing system. Has there been any update to our payment gateway or integration in the last quarter?

Why it matters: Recent system changes often correlate with performance issues. Expected answer: Yes, there was a minor update to the payment gateway. Impact on approach: If confirmed, we'd prioritize investigating the update's impact.

• Considering user segments, I'm wondering if this issue is affecting all customers equally. Are we seeing a higher failure rate in any particular user segment or subscription tier?

Why it matters: Segmented impact could point to specific user-related or product-tier issues. Expected answer: The issue seems more prevalent in enterprise-level subscriptions. Impact on approach: We'd focus on enterprise-specific factors if this is the case.

• Given the nature of recurring billing, I'm curious about the timing of these failures. Are they occurring at the point of initial subscription, or during subsequent billing cycles?

Why it matters: The timing of failures can indicate whether the issue is related to new subscriptions or ongoing payment processing. Expected answer: Failures are primarily occurring during subsequent billing cycles. Impact on approach: We'd investigate factors specific to recurring payments rather than new subscriptions.

• Considering potential changes in measurement, I'm wondering if there have been any modifications to how we define or track failed payments. Has the definition or tracking method for this metric changed recently?

Why it matters: Changes in measurement can sometimes explain sudden metric shifts. Expected answer: No changes in the definition or tracking method. Impact on approach: We'd rule out measurement issues and focus on actual performance factors.