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Product Management Root Cause Analysis Question: Investigating sudden drop in mobile game in-app purchases

What caused the sudden 30% decrease in in-app purchases for NetEase's Fantasy Westward Journey?

Data Analysis Problem Solving Strategic Thinking Gaming Mobile Apps Entertainment
Mobile Gaming Monetization Root Cause Analysis User Behavior Game Economy

Introduction

A sudden 30% decrease in in-app purchases for NetEase's Fantasy Westward Journey is a critical issue that demands immediate attention and thorough analysis. This significant drop in revenue could have far-reaching implications for the game's sustainability and the company's overall performance. To address this problem, I'll employ a systematic approach to identify, validate, and resolve the root cause while considering both short-term fixes and long-term strategic implications.

Framework overview

This analysis follows a structured approach covering issue identification, hypothesis generation, validation, and solution development.

Step 1

Clarifying Questions (3 minutes)

  • Looking at the timing, I'm thinking there might be a recent game update or event. Has there been any significant change to the game's content or mechanics in the past month?

Why it matters: Recent changes could directly impact user behavior and purchasing patterns. Expected answer: Yes, there was a major update introducing new characters and quests. Impact on approach: If confirmed, we'd focus on analyzing the new content's reception and its effect on in-app purchases.

  • Considering user segments, I'm curious about the distribution of the decrease. Is the 30% drop uniform across all user types, or is it more pronounced in certain segments?

Why it matters: Understanding which users are most affected helps pinpoint the root cause and tailor solutions. Expected answer: The decrease is more significant among mid-tier spenders. Impact on approach: We'd investigate factors specifically affecting this user segment's purchasing behavior.

  • Given the competitive nature of mobile gaming, I'm wondering about market dynamics. Have there been any notable launches or promotions from competitors recently?

Why it matters: External market forces could be drawing users away or changing their spending habits. Expected answer: A major competitor launched a similar game with aggressive promotions. Impact on approach: We'd need to assess our game's competitive positioning and value proposition.

  • Thinking about technical issues, I'm concerned about potential payment processing problems. Have there been any reported issues with the payment system or unusual error rates?

Why it matters: Technical glitches could directly impact users' ability to make purchases. Expected answer: No significant issues reported in payment processing. Impact on approach: If confirmed, we'd shift focus from technical causes to user behavior and game design factors.

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