What factors are contributing to the sudden 30% increase in failed transactions for Remitly's Economy transfers to the Philippines?

Introduction

The sudden 30% increase in failed transactions for Remitly's Economy transfers to the Philippines presents a critical issue that demands immediate attention. This analysis will systematically identify, validate, and address the root cause while considering both short-term fixes and long-term strategic implications.

Step 1

Clarifying Questions (3 minutes)

• Looking at the timing, I'm thinking this could be a recent change. When exactly did we start observing this 30% increase?

Why it matters: Pinpointing the timeframe helps narrow down potential causes. Expected answer: Within the last week or month. Impact on approach: A sudden spike suggests a specific trigger, while a gradual increase might indicate a systemic issue.

• Considering user segments, I'm wondering if this affects all users equally. Are we seeing any patterns in terms of user demographics or transaction amounts?

Why it matters: Identifying affected segments can reveal underlying issues. Expected answer: Possibly more prevalent among certain user groups or transaction sizes. Impact on approach: Segmentation analysis would be prioritized if specific groups are more affected.

• Given the specificity to the Philippines, I'm curious about local factors. Have there been any recent regulatory changes or banking system updates in the Philippines?

Why it matters: Local changes could explain the geographic specificity of the issue. Expected answer: Possible recent changes in Filipino banking or remittance regulations. Impact on approach: If confirmed, we'd focus on compliance and local partnership strategies.

• Thinking about our systems, I'm concerned about recent changes. Have we deployed any updates to our transaction processing or fraud detection systems recently?

Why it matters: Internal changes could be inadvertently causing the increase in failed transactions. Expected answer: Possible recent system updates or new fraud detection rules. Impact on approach: If confirmed, we'd prioritize reviewing and potentially rolling back recent changes.