Why has the number of new user sign-ups for Revolut's crypto trading feature dropped by 30% in the past week?

Introduction

The recent 30% drop in new user sign-ups for Revolut's crypto trading feature is a significant concern that requires immediate attention. This analysis will systematically identify, validate, and address the root cause while considering both short-term and long-term implications for the product and business.

To tackle this issue, I'll follow a structured approach:

1. Clarify the situation with targeted questions
2. Rule out basic external factors
3. Analyze the product and user journey
4. Break down the metric
5. Gather and prioritize relevant data
6. Form data-driven hypotheses
7. Conduct root cause analysis
8. Propose validation methods and next steps
9. Present a decision framework
10. Outline a resolution plan

Step 1

Clarifying Questions (3 minutes)

• Looking at the timing, I'm thinking there might be a recent change in the crypto market. Has there been any significant cryptocurrency price volatility in the past week?

Why it matters: Market conditions often drive user interest in crypto trading. Expected answer: Yes, there has been increased volatility. Impact on approach: If confirmed, we'd need to analyze how market conditions correlate with sign-ups.

• Considering user segments, I'm curious about the distribution of this drop. Is the 30% decrease uniform across all user demographics, or is it more pronounced in specific groups?

Why it matters: Helps identify if the issue is global or segment-specific. Expected answer: The drop is more significant among younger users. Impact on approach: We'd focus on understanding what's changed for this particular segment.

• Thinking about recent updates, have there been any changes to the onboarding process or KYC requirements for crypto trading in the past two weeks?

Why it matters: Changes in user experience can significantly impact sign-up rates. Expected answer: A new identity verification step was added last week. Impact on approach: We'd analyze the impact of this change on conversion rates.

• Considering competitive landscape, has there been any major launch or promotion from our competitors recently?

Why it matters: Competitor actions can draw potential users away from our platform. Expected answer: A major competitor launched a zero-fee promotion last week. Impact on approach: We'd need to assess our competitive positioning and value proposition.

• Regarding system performance, have there been any reported issues or downtime in our crypto trading feature or related systems?

Why it matters: Technical issues can deter new users from signing up. Expected answer: No major issues reported. Impact on approach: We'd focus more on product and market factors rather than technical problems.