Why has Rocket Companies's Rocket Mortgage application seen a 15% drop in completed applications over the past month?

Introduction

The recent 15% drop in completed Rocket Mortgage applications over the past month is a significant issue that requires immediate attention. As we analyze this product problem, we'll follow a systematic approach to identify, validate, and address the root cause while considering both short-term and long-term implications for Rocket Companies.

Our analysis will cover issue identification, hypothesis generation, validation, and solution development. We'll start by clarifying the context, then rule out external factors before diving deep into the product, user journey, and metrics. From there, we'll form data-driven hypotheses, conduct root cause analysis, and propose validation methods and next steps.

Step 1

Clarifying Questions (3 minutes)

• Looking at the timing, I'm thinking there might be seasonal factors at play. Has there been any significant change in the housing market or interest rates in the past month?

Why it matters: Seasonal trends can greatly impact mortgage applications. Expected answer: No major market shifts, but slight interest rate increase. Impact on approach: If confirmed, we'd focus more on internal factors.

• Considering user segments, I'm curious about the distribution of the drop. Is the 15% decrease uniform across all user types, or are certain segments more affected?

Why it matters: Helps identify if the issue is global or segment-specific. Expected answer: The drop is more pronounced in first-time homebuyers. Impact on approach: We'd investigate factors specific to this user segment.

• Thinking about recent changes, have there been any updates to the application process or UI in the last 1-2 months?

Why it matters: Recent changes could directly impact user behavior. Expected answer: Minor UI tweaks were implemented 6 weeks ago. Impact on approach: We'd analyze the impact of these specific changes.

• Regarding system performance, have there been any reported issues or increased error rates in the application submission process?

Why it matters: Technical issues could be causing users to abandon applications. Expected answer: No significant increase in error rates reported. Impact on approach: We'd shift focus from technical issues to user experience factors.