What factors are contributing to the sudden 30% decrease in first-time deposits for Skillz's Solitaire Cube game this quarter?

Introduction

The sudden 30% decrease in first-time deposits for Skillz's Solitaire Cube game this quarter is a critical issue that demands immediate attention. This analysis will systematically identify, validate, and address the root cause while considering both short-term and long-term implications for the product and business.

I'll approach this problem by first clarifying key details, ruling out external factors, and then diving deep into the product, user journey, and metrics. From there, I'll form data-driven hypotheses, conduct root cause analysis, and propose validation methods and solutions.

Step 1

Clarifying Questions (3 minutes)

• Looking at the timing, I'm thinking there might be a seasonal component. Has this 30% decrease been compared to the same quarter last year?

Why it matters: Seasonal fluctuations could explain the decrease and impact our solution approach. Expected answer: Yes, it has been compared, and the decrease is still significant. Impact on approach: If seasonal, we'd focus on year-over-year trends rather than quarter-over-quarter.

• Considering user segments, I'm curious about the acquisition funnel. Has there been any change in the user acquisition channels or marketing spend this quarter?

Why it matters: Changes in user acquisition could directly impact first-time deposits. Expected answer: Marketing spend and channels have remained consistent. Impact on approach: If unchanged, we'd focus more on product and user experience issues.

• Thinking about recent updates, have there been any significant changes to the game, payment system, or onboarding process in the last 3 months?

Why it matters: Recent changes could be directly responsible for the decrease in first-time deposits. Expected answer: A minor update to the payment system was implemented 6 weeks ago. Impact on approach: This would shift our focus to thoroughly examining the payment system update.

• Considering data integrity, has there been any change in how first-time deposits are tracked or defined?

Why it matters: Ensures we're comparing apples to apples and not chasing a non-existent problem. Expected answer: No changes in tracking or definition. Impact on approach: If changed, we'd need to recalibrate our analysis based on the new definition.