What caused the sudden 30% decrease in Sonder's extended stay reservations in New York City properties last quarter?

Introduction

The sudden 30% decrease in Sonder's extended stay reservations for New York City properties last quarter is a critical issue that demands immediate attention. This analysis will systematically identify, validate, and address the root cause while considering both short-term and long-term implications for Sonder's business.

To tackle this problem, I'll follow a structured approach:

1. Clarify the situation with targeted questions
2. Rule out basic external factors
3. Analyze the product and user journey
4. Break down the metric
5. Gather and prioritize relevant data
6. Form data-driven hypotheses
7. Conduct root cause analysis
8. Propose validation methods and next steps
9. Present a decision framework
10. Outline a resolution plan

Step 1

Clarifying Questions (3 minutes)

• Looking at the timing, I'm thinking there might be seasonality at play. Has this 30% decrease been compared to the same quarter last year?

Why it matters: Seasonal trends could explain fluctuations in extended stay bookings. Expected answer: Yes, it's been compared and the decrease is still significant. Impact on approach: If seasonal, we'd focus on year-over-year comparisons rather than quarter-over-quarter.

• Considering the specificity to NYC properties, I'm wondering about local factors. Have there been any significant changes in New York's extended stay market recently?

Why it matters: Local market dynamics could be driving the decrease. Expected answer: No major changes reported in the NYC extended stay market. Impact on approach: If no local changes, we'd shift focus to internal factors or broader industry trends.

• Given the substantial drop, I'm curious about system integrity. Have there been any recent changes to our booking system or how we track reservations?

Why it matters: Technical issues could lead to misreporting or actual booking problems. Expected answer: No major system changes reported. Impact on approach: If system changes occurred, we'd prioritize technical investigations.

• Thinking about user segments, I'm wondering if this decrease is uniform across all types of extended stay guests. Do we see similar drops in business travelers, relocating professionals, and leisure extended stays?

Why it matters: Different segments may be affected differently, pointing to specific causes. Expected answer: The decrease is more pronounced in business traveler bookings. Impact on approach: We'd focus on factors specifically affecting business travelers.