What caused the sudden 30% decrease in in-app purchases for Supercell's Hay Day's latest seasonal event?

Introduction

The sudden 30% decrease in in-app purchases for Supercell's Hay Day's latest seasonal event is a critical issue that demands immediate attention. This analysis will systematically identify, validate, and address the root cause while considering both short-term and long-term implications for the product.

I'll approach this problem by first clarifying key details, ruling out external factors, and then diving deep into the product's user journey and metrics. From there, I'll form data-driven hypotheses, conduct root cause analysis, and propose validation methods and solutions.

Step 1

Clarifying Questions (3 minutes)

• Looking at the timing, I'm thinking this might be related to the event's design. Could you provide more details about the structure of this latest seasonal event compared to previous ones?

Why it matters: Understanding event changes helps identify potential user experience issues. Expected answer: Details on event mechanics, duration, and rewards. Impact on approach: Significant changes might point to user adoption challenges.

• Considering user segments, I'm curious about the impact across different player cohorts. Has the decrease been uniform across all user segments, or are certain groups more affected?

Why it matters: Identifies whether the issue is global or segment-specific. Expected answer: Breakdown of impact across user segments (e.g., new vs. veteran players). Impact on approach: Segment-specific issues would require targeted solutions.

• Thinking about recent updates, were there any significant changes to the app or game mechanics just before or during the event launch?

Why it matters: Technical issues or gameplay changes could explain the decrease. Expected answer: Information on recent updates or changes. Impact on approach: Recent changes might indicate bugs or user adaptation issues.

• Regarding competitive landscape, have there been any major releases or events from competitors coinciding with this seasonal event?

Why it matters: External market factors could influence player behavior. Expected answer: Information on competitor activities. Impact on approach: Strong competitive offerings might require strategic adjustments.

• Considering data integrity, can you confirm that the measurement systems for in-app purchases have remained consistent and there haven't been any changes in how this metric is calculated or tracked?

Why it matters: Ensures the observed decrease is real and not a measurement artifact. Expected answer: Confirmation of consistent measurement methods. Impact on approach: Data inconsistencies would shift focus to measurement systems.