What factors are contributing to the 30% decrease in average order value for THG (Internet Retail)'s Myprotein supplement brand in the UK market this month?

Introduction

The 30% decrease in average order value for THG's Myprotein supplement brand in the UK market this month is a significant issue that requires immediate attention. To address this problem, I'll employ a systematic approach to identify, validate, and resolve the root cause while considering both short-term and long-term implications.

I'll begin by clarifying the context, then rule out external factors before diving deep into product understanding, metric breakdown, and data analysis. From there, I'll form hypotheses, conduct root cause analysis, and propose validation methods and solutions.

Step 1

Clarifying Questions (3 minutes)

• Looking at the timing, I'm thinking there might be seasonal factors at play. Has there been any significant change in sales patterns compared to the same month last year?

Why it matters: Seasonal trends could explain the decrease and inform our solution approach. Expected answer: Sales patterns are similar to last year. Impact on approach: If different, we'd focus on seasonal strategies; if similar, we'd look elsewhere.

• Considering the specificity of the decrease, I'm wondering about recent changes. Have there been any major product updates, pricing changes, or marketing campaigns in the last 1-2 months?

Why it matters: Recent changes could directly impact average order value. Expected answer: A new website design was launched last month. Impact on approach: If changes occurred, we'd investigate their impact; if not, we'd explore other factors.

• Given the focus on average order value, I'm curious about customer segmentation. Has there been any shift in the mix of new vs. returning customers recently?

Why it matters: Different customer segments may have different purchasing behaviors. Expected answer: The ratio of new to returning customers has remained stable. Impact on approach: If there's a shift, we'd analyze segment-specific strategies; if not, we'd look at overall customer behavior changes.

• Considering potential technical issues, I'm wondering about the checkout process. Have there been any reported problems or changes in cart abandonment rates?

Why it matters: Technical issues could directly impact completed orders and their value. Expected answer: No significant changes in cart abandonment rates have been observed. Impact on approach: If issues are present, we'd prioritize technical fixes; if not, we'd focus on other areas of the user journey.