What factors are contributing to the 20% decrease in new member sign-ups for Thrivent's retirement planning services over the past 6 months?

Introduction

Thrivent's 20% decrease in new member sign-ups for retirement planning services over the past 6 months is a critical issue that demands immediate attention. This analysis will systematically identify, validate, and address the root cause while considering both short-term and long-term implications for the business.

I'll approach this problem by first clarifying the context, then ruling out external factors before diving deep into product understanding, metric breakdown, and hypothesis formation. We'll then conduct a thorough root cause analysis, propose validation methods, and outline a clear resolution plan.

Step 1

Clarifying Questions (3 minutes)

• Looking at the timing, I'm thinking there might be seasonal factors at play. Has this 20% decrease been compared to the same period last year?

Why it matters: Seasonal trends could explain fluctuations in sign-ups. Expected answer: Yes, it's been compared and the decrease is still significant. Impact on approach: If seasonal, we'd focus on year-over-year comparisons rather than month-over-month.

• Considering the specificity of the decrease, I'm curious about our measurement accuracy. Have there been any changes to how we track new member sign-ups in the last 6 months?

Why it matters: Ensures we're comparing apples to apples in our metrics. Expected answer: No changes in measurement methods. Impact on approach: If changes occurred, we'd need to recalibrate our data analysis.

• Given the focus on retirement planning, I'm wondering about our target demographic. Has there been any shift in the age groups we're targeting or attracting?

Why it matters: Different age groups may have varying retirement planning needs and behaviors. Expected answer: No intentional shift, but we haven't analyzed recent sign-up demographics. Impact on approach: If there's a demographic shift, we'd need to tailor our product and marketing strategies accordingly.

• Considering potential external influences, have there been any significant changes in the competitive landscape or regulatory environment for retirement planning services?

Why it matters: External factors could be driving potential customers away or creating barriers to entry. Expected answer: No major regulatory changes, but a new competitor has entered the market. Impact on approach: If external factors are significant, we'd need to reassess our value proposition and market positioning.