What caused the sudden 30% decrease in Underdog Fantasy's Pick'em contest completions last weekend?

Introduction

The sudden 30% decrease in Underdog Fantasy's Pick'em contest completions last weekend is a critical issue that demands immediate attention. This analysis will systematically identify, validate, and address the root cause while considering both short-term and long-term implications for the product and user experience.

I'll approach this problem by first clarifying key details, ruling out external factors, and then diving deep into the product mechanics, user journey, and relevant metrics. From there, I'll generate data-driven hypotheses, conduct root cause analysis, and propose a structured plan for validation and resolution.

Step 1

Clarifying Questions (3 minutes)

• Looking at the timing, I'm thinking this could be related to a specific event or change. Was there any major sporting event or product update that coincided with this decrease?

Why it matters: Identifying any correlating events helps narrow down potential causes. Expected answer: There was a major NFL game that weekend. Impact on approach: If confirmed, we'd focus on NFL-related factors in our analysis.

• Given the 30% drop, I'm curious about the user segments affected. Did this decrease occur uniformly across all user types, or was it more pronounced in certain segments?

Why it matters: Understanding affected segments helps pinpoint user-specific issues. Expected answer: The decrease was more significant among casual users. Impact on approach: We'd investigate factors that might disproportionately affect casual users.

• Considering the contest completion metric, I'm wondering about the funnel stages. At which stage of the Pick'em contest did we see the most significant drop-off?

Why it matters: Identifying the problematic stage helps focus our investigation. Expected answer: The drop-off occurred primarily at the contest entry stage. Impact on approach: We'd examine factors affecting users' ability or willingness to enter contests.

• Thinking about system stability, I'm curious if there were any reported technical issues or outages during this period?

Why it matters: Technical problems could directly impact contest completions. Expected answer: No major outages, but there were some reported app crashes. Impact on approach: We'd investigate the extent and impact of these crashes on contest completions.

• Considering recent changes, were there any updates to the contest rules, user interface, or pricing structure in the lead-up to this weekend?

Why it matters: Recent changes could have unintended consequences on user behavior. Expected answer: A minor UI update was rolled out the week before. Impact on approach: We'd examine the UI changes and their potential impact on user engagement.