Why has the average order value for rice on Wasoko dropped by 15% in the last month?

Introduction

The recent 15% drop in average order value (AOV) for rice on Wasoko is a concerning trend that requires immediate attention. As we delve into this issue, we'll employ a systematic approach to identify, validate, and address the root cause while considering both short-term and long-term implications for our product and business.

Step 1

Clarifying Questions (3 minutes)

• Looking at the timing, I'm thinking there might be a seasonal factor at play. Has this drop coincided with any particular harvest season or agricultural event?

Why it matters: Seasonal trends can significantly impact purchasing behavior in the agricultural sector. Expected answer: There's no clear seasonal correlation. Impact on approach: If seasonal, we'd focus on inventory management and pricing strategies.

• Considering user segments, I'm curious about the distribution of this drop. Is the 15% decrease uniform across all customer types, or are we seeing more significant changes in specific segments?

Why it matters: Understanding which segments are most affected will guide our investigation and solution design. Expected answer: The drop is more pronounced among small-scale retailers. Impact on approach: We'd prioritize analyzing the needs and behaviors of small-scale retailers.

• Thinking about recent changes, have there been any updates to the product, pricing, or user interface in the last 1-2 months?

Why it matters: Recent changes could directly impact user behavior and purchasing decisions. Expected answer: A new bulk discount feature was introduced for large orders. Impact on approach: We'd examine how this feature might be affecting ordering patterns.

• Regarding data integrity, can we confirm that the definition of AOV has remained consistent and that our measurement systems are functioning correctly?

Why it matters: Ensures we're not chasing a problem that doesn't exist due to data discrepancies. Expected answer: The definition and measurement systems are unchanged and verified. Impact on approach: If there were changes, we'd need to recalibrate our analysis based on the new metrics.