What caused the sudden 30% drop in W.B. Mason's copy paper orders from corporate clients last month?

Introduction

The sudden 30% drop in W.B. Mason's copy paper orders from corporate clients last month is a critical issue that demands immediate attention. This analysis will systematically identify, validate, and address the root cause while considering both short-term and long-term implications for the business.

I'll approach this problem by first clarifying key details, ruling out external factors, and then diving deep into product understanding, metric breakdown, and data analysis. From there, I'll form hypotheses, conduct root cause analysis, and propose validation methods and solutions.

Step 1

Clarifying Questions (3 minutes)

• Looking at the timing, I'm thinking this could be a seasonal trend. Has this drop occurred in previous years during the same month?

Why it matters: Helps distinguish between cyclical patterns and unique issues. Expected answer: No, this is unprecedented for this time of year. Impact on approach: If seasonal, we'd focus on forecasting; if not, we'd investigate recent changes.

• Considering potential system changes, have there been any updates to the ordering platform in the last 60 days?

Why it matters: Technical issues could explain the sudden drop. Expected answer: A minor update was pushed two weeks before the drop. Impact on approach: If yes, we'd prioritize technical investigation; if no, we'd look more at market factors.

• Thinking about client segments, is this drop consistent across all corporate client types, or is it more pronounced in certain industries or company sizes?

Why it matters: Helps identify if the issue is global or specific to certain client groups. Expected answer: The drop is more significant among large enterprises. Impact on approach: If segmented, we'd tailor solutions to specific client groups; if uniform, we'd look at broader market trends.

• Considering recent market changes, have there been any significant shifts in paper prices or supply chain disruptions in the past month?

Why it matters: External market factors could be driving the decrease in orders. Expected answer: Paper prices have remained stable, but there have been some supply chain rumors. Impact on approach: If market-related, we'd focus on competitive positioning; if not, we'd look more at internal factors.