What's causing the sudden 30% drop in Flixbus mobile app installations over the last week?

Introduction

The sudden 30% drop in Flixbus mobile app installations over the last week is a critical issue that demands immediate attention. This analysis will systematically identify, validate, and address the root cause while considering both short-term and long-term implications for the product.

I'll approach this problem by first clarifying key details, ruling out external factors, and then diving deep into the product ecosystem, user journey, and relevant metrics. From there, I'll generate data-driven hypotheses, conduct root cause analysis, and propose validation methods and solutions.

Step 1

Clarifying Questions (3 minutes)

• Looking at the timing, I'm thinking this could be related to a recent app update. Has there been any significant app update or change in the last 1-2 weeks?

Why it matters: Recent changes often correlate with sudden metric shifts. Expected answer: Yes, there was an update. Impact on approach: If yes, we'll focus on the update's impact; if no, we'll look at other factors.

• Considering user segments, I'm curious about the distribution of this drop. Is the 30% decrease uniform across all user segments and regions?

Why it matters: Helps identify if the issue is global or specific to certain users. Expected answer: The drop varies across segments. Impact on approach: If varied, we'll focus on affected segments; if uniform, we'll look at broader issues.

• Given the nature of Flixbus's business, I'm wondering about seasonality. How does this week's installation rate compare to the same period in previous years?

Why it matters: Rules out normal seasonal fluctuations. Expected answer: This drop is abnormal for the season. Impact on approach: If seasonal, we'll consider cyclical factors; if not, we'll focus on recent changes.

• Thinking about the app store ecosystem, have there been any changes in app store policies or featuring that might affect visibility?

Why it matters: External factors can significantly impact app installations. Expected answer: No major changes in app store policies. Impact on approach: If yes, we'll investigate app store factors; if no, we'll focus more on internal issues.