What's causing the sudden increase in failed direct debits for the Moneybox Pension product over the past week?

Introduction

The sudden increase in failed direct debits for the Moneybox Pension product over the past week is a critical issue that requires immediate attention. This analysis will systematically identify, validate, and address the root cause while considering both short-term fixes and long-term implications for the product and its users.

I'll approach this problem by first clarifying the context, then ruling out external factors before diving deep into the product mechanics, metric breakdown, and data analysis. From there, I'll form hypotheses, conduct root cause analysis, and propose validation methods and solutions.

Step 1

Clarifying Questions (3 minutes)

• Looking at the timing, I'm thinking this could be related to a recent product update. Have there been any changes to the direct debit process or related systems in the past two weeks?

Why it matters: Recent changes often correlate with sudden metric shifts. Expected answer: Yes, there was a minor update to the payment processing system. Impact on approach: If yes, we'd focus on that change; if no, we'd look at external factors more closely.

• Considering user segments, I'm curious if this issue is affecting all users equally. Can you provide a breakdown of failed direct debits by user demographics or account types?

Why it matters: Helps identify if the issue is systemic or specific to certain user groups. Expected answer: The issue seems more prevalent among newer users. Impact on approach: If segmented, we'd investigate onboarding processes; if universal, we'd look at core system issues.

• Given the nature of pension products, I'm wondering about the timing of these debits. Are the failures concentrated around specific days of the month or spread evenly?

Why it matters: Could indicate issues with batch processing or specific time-based triggers. Expected answer: Failures are clustered around month-end. Impact on approach: If clustered, we'd investigate capacity issues; if spread, we'd look at broader system problems.

• Thinking about data integrity, has there been any change in how we're measuring or defining failed direct debits recently?

Why it matters: Ensures we're not chasing a non-existent problem due to measurement changes. Expected answer: No changes to measurement methods. Impact on approach: If changed, we'd recalibrate our analysis; if not, we proceed with current definitions.