What's causing the sudden increase in failed transfers for GBP to EUR transactions on Wise in the past 24 hours?

Introduction

The sudden increase in failed transfers for GBP to EUR transactions on Wise in the past 24 hours is a critical issue that demands immediate attention. As we delve into this problem, we'll employ a systematic approach to identify, validate, and address the root cause while considering both short-term fixes and long-term implications for our product and users.

Our analysis will follow a structured framework, covering issue identification, hypothesis generation, validation, and solution development. This approach ensures we leave no stone unturned in our quest to resolve the issue and prevent future occurrences.

Step 1

Clarifying Questions (3 minutes)

• Looking at the timing, I'm thinking this could be related to a recent system change. Have there been any updates or deployments in the last 48 hours?

Why it matters: Recent changes often correlate with sudden performance shifts. Expected answer: Yes, a minor update was deployed yesterday. Impact on approach: If confirmed, we'd focus on rollback options and code review.

• Considering the specificity of GBP to EUR, I'm wondering about regulatory changes. Has there been any new financial regulation affecting UK-EU transfers?

Why it matters: Regulatory changes can significantly impact cross-border transactions. Expected answer: No recent regulatory changes. Impact on approach: If no changes, we'd shift focus to internal systems and market factors.

• Given the 24-hour timeframe, I'm curious about volume changes. Has there been an unusual spike in transaction volume during this period?

Why it matters: Volume spikes can strain systems and lead to increased failures. Expected answer: Transaction volume is within normal range. Impact on approach: If volume is normal, we'd investigate system capacity and performance issues.

• Thinking about user segments, I'm considering whether this affects all users or a specific group. Are we seeing this issue across all user types or is it concentrated in a particular segment?

Why it matters: Segmented issues can point to specific user behaviors or system vulnerabilities. Expected answer: The issue appears to affect all user segments equally. Impact on approach: If widespread, we'd focus on core system components rather than user-specific features.