How can we explain the unexpected 20% decline in new ANZ credit card sign-ups among millennials in the past 60 days?

Introduction

The unexpected 20% decline in new ANZ credit card sign-ups among millennials over the past 60 days is a significant issue that requires immediate attention. To address this problem, I'll employ a systematic approach to identify, validate, and resolve the root cause while considering both short-term and long-term implications.

Step 1

Clarifying Questions (3 minutes)

• Looking at the timing, I'm thinking there might be a seasonal factor. Has this decline been observed in previous years during the same period?

Why it matters: Helps distinguish between cyclical patterns and unique issues. Expected answer: No similar decline in previous years. Impact on approach: If seasonal, we'd focus on why this year is different; if not, we'd investigate recent changes.

• Considering the specific demographic, I wonder if there's been a shift in millennial financial behavior. Have we seen any changes in other financial products targeting millennials?

Why it matters: Identifies whether this is a credit card-specific issue or a broader trend. Expected answer: No significant changes in other millennial-focused products. Impact on approach: If isolated to credit cards, we'd focus on product-specific factors; if broader, we'd examine market trends.

• Given the 60-day timeframe, I'm curious about any recent changes to our credit card offerings or marketing strategies. Have there been any significant updates in the past 2-3 months?

Why it matters: Pinpoints potential internal factors causing the decline. Expected answer: A recent change in credit card rewards structure. Impact on approach: If changes occurred, we'd analyze their impact; if not, we'd look at external factors more closely.

• Thinking about data integrity, I'm wondering if there have been any changes to our tracking or reporting systems. Can we confirm the consistency of our sign-up measurement methods?

Why it matters: Ensures the observed decline is real and not a data anomaly. Expected answer: No changes in measurement systems or methods. Impact on approach: If inconsistencies are found, we'd focus on data validation; if not, we'd proceed with analyzing actual sign-up behavior.