How can we explain the unexpected 20% decline in repeat orders for Vistaprint's promotional products among small business customers in the last 60 days?

Introduction

The unexpected 20% decline in repeat orders for Vistaprint's promotional products among small business customers in the last 60 days is a critical issue that demands immediate attention. To address this problem, I'll employ a systematic approach to identify, validate, and resolve the root cause while considering both short-term and long-term implications.

Step 1

Clarifying Questions (3 minutes)

• Looking at the timing, I'm thinking there might be a seasonal component. Has this decline been observed in previous years during the same period?

Why it matters: Seasonal patterns could explain the decline and inform our solution approach. Expected answer: No, this decline is unusual for this time of year. Impact on approach: If seasonal, we'd focus on adapting to cyclical demand; if not, we'd investigate other factors.

• Considering the specificity of the decline, I'm wondering about recent changes. Have there been any significant updates to the product line, pricing, or user interface in the past 90 days?

Why it matters: Recent changes could directly impact user behavior and order patterns. Expected answer: A new UI for the ordering process was implemented 75 days ago. Impact on approach: If changes occurred, we'd scrutinize their impact; if not, we'd look at external factors or gradual shifts in user behavior.

• Given the focus on small business customers, I'm curious about market conditions. Has there been any notable shift in the small business landscape or economy in the past quarter?

Why it matters: Economic factors could be driving the decline in repeat orders. Expected answer: No significant economic changes specific to small businesses have been reported. Impact on approach: Economic factors would lead us to consider market-wide solutions; absence of such factors would direct us to internal issues.

• Considering the metric specificity, I'm thinking about data accuracy. Has there been any change in how repeat orders are tracked or defined in the system?

Why it matters: Changes in measurement could create a false perception of decline. Expected answer: No changes in tracking or definition have been made. Impact on approach: Data inconsistencies would require a focus on measurement accuracy; consistent data would lead us to investigate actual performance issues.