Should Mobike prioritize expanding to new cities or improving service in existing markets?

Introduction

The trade-off we're examining today is whether Mobike should prioritize expanding to new cities or improving service in existing markets. This decision is crucial for Mobike's growth strategy and resource allocation. I'll analyze this trade-off by considering market dynamics, user needs, and operational challenges. My approach will involve clarifying the context, understanding the product, identifying key metrics, designing experiments, and providing a data-driven recommendation.

Step 1

Clarifying Questions (3 minutes)

• Based on Mobike's current market position, I'm thinking expansion might be a priority. Could you share our current market share in existing cities and how it compares to competitors?

Why it matters: Helps assess the potential for growth in existing markets vs. new ones. Expected answer: Strong market share in existing cities, facing saturation. Impact on approach: Would lean towards expansion if existing markets are saturated.

• Considering user acquisition costs, I'm curious about our current metrics. What's our customer acquisition cost (CAC) in existing cities compared to projections for new markets?

Why it matters: Influences the financial viability of expansion vs. intensification. Expected answer: Lower CAC in existing markets due to brand recognition. Impact on approach: Higher projected CAC in new markets might favor improving existing services.

• Looking at our operational capabilities, I'm wondering about our supply chain and logistics. How scalable is our current infrastructure for bike production and maintenance across new cities?

Why it matters: Determines the feasibility and speed of expansion. Expected answer: Moderately scalable with some constraints. Impact on approach: Limited scalability would suggest focusing on existing markets first.

• Regarding user feedback, I'm interested in our current satisfaction levels. What are the main pain points reported by users in our existing markets?

Why it matters: Identifies areas for improvement in current services. Expected answer: Issues with bike availability and maintenance. Impact on approach: Significant user dissatisfaction would prioritize service improvements.

• Considering our financial position, I'm curious about our current runway. How much capital do we have available for expansion or service improvements?

Why it matters: Determines the scope and timeline of potential initiatives. Expected answer: Sufficient capital for either strategy, but not both simultaneously. Impact on approach: Limited capital would necessitate a more focused strategy.