What's causing the sudden increase in failed transactions for Paga's money transfer feature?

Introduction

The sudden increase in failed transactions for Paga's money transfer feature is a critical issue that demands immediate attention. This problem directly impacts our core service offering and could have severe consequences for user trust, retention, and overall business performance. I'll approach this analysis systematically, focusing on identifying the root cause, validating hypotheses, and developing both short-term fixes and long-term solutions.

Step 1

Clarifying Questions (3 minutes)

• Looking at the timing, I'm thinking there might be a recent change that triggered this. Has there been any significant update to the money transfer feature or related systems in the past week?

Why it matters: Recent changes often correlate with sudden performance shifts. Expected answer: Yes, a new version was deployed last Tuesday. Impact on approach: If true, we'd focus on changes in that deployment.

• Considering user segments, I'm wondering if this is affecting all users equally. Are we seeing a higher failure rate for any particular user group, such as new users or those from specific regions?

Why it matters: Segmentation can reveal patterns and narrow down potential causes. Expected answer: Users from rural areas are experiencing higher failure rates. Impact on approach: We'd investigate infrastructure or connectivity issues in those areas.

• Given the nature of money transfers, I'm curious about the transaction amounts. Is there any correlation between the failure rate and the size of the transactions?

Why it matters: This could indicate issues with fraud prevention systems or banking partner integrations. Expected answer: Larger transactions (>$1000) are failing more frequently. Impact on approach: We'd examine our fraud detection algorithms and bank API interactions for high-value transfers.

• Thinking about the user journey, I'm interested in where exactly these failures are occurring. At what stage of the transfer process are most failures happening - initiation, processing, or completion?

Why it matters: This helps pinpoint whether the issue is frontend, backend, or with third-party integrations. Expected answer: Most failures occur during the processing stage. Impact on approach: We'd focus on our backend systems and payment gateway integrations.