Why has the on-time arrival rate for Swvl's scheduled bus service declined from 92% to 78% over the last quarter?

Introduction

The decline in Swvl's scheduled bus service on-time arrival rate from 92% to 78% over the last quarter is a significant issue that requires immediate attention. This drop in performance could have far-reaching consequences for customer satisfaction, retention, and the company's overall reputation. To address this problem, I'll employ a systematic approach to identify, validate, and resolve the root cause while considering both short-term fixes and long-term strategic implications.

Step 1

Clarifying Questions (3 minutes)

• Looking at the timing, I'm thinking there might be seasonal factors at play. Has there been any significant change in weather patterns or traffic conditions during this quarter compared to the previous one?

Why it matters: Seasonal changes can significantly impact transportation services. Expected answer: There have been no unusual weather patterns or traffic conditions. Impact on approach: If confirmed, we'll focus more on internal factors.

• Considering the scale of the decline, I'm wondering if there have been any major changes to the fleet or routes. Have you introduced new buses or expanded to new areas recently?

Why it matters: Expansion or fleet changes could explain performance fluctuations. Expected answer: Some new routes were added, but no significant fleet changes. Impact on approach: We'll need to analyze the performance of new vs. existing routes separately.

• Given the precision of the metrics, I'm curious about the data collection process. Has there been any change in how on-time arrivals are measured or reported?

Why it matters: Changes in measurement could artificially affect the metrics. Expected answer: No changes in measurement or reporting processes. Impact on approach: We'll focus on actual performance issues rather than data anomalies.

• Considering potential user behavior changes, have you noticed any shift in peak usage times or booking patterns?

Why it matters: Changes in user behavior could strain the system in unexpected ways. Expected answer: Some shift towards last-minute bookings has been observed. Impact on approach: We'll investigate the impact of booking patterns on scheduling and performance.