Why has Chipotle Mexican Grill's guacamole sales volume dropped by 15% over the past month?

Introduction

Chipotle Mexican Grill's 15% drop in guacamole sales volume over the past month presents a concerning trend that requires immediate attention. To address this issue, I'll employ a systematic approach to identify, validate, and resolve the root cause while considering both short-term and long-term implications for the business.

Step 1

Clarifying Questions (3 minutes)

• Considering the timing, I'm wondering if there have been any recent changes to Chipotle's menu or pricing structure. Have there been any modifications to the guacamole offering or its price in the last 1-2 months?

Why it matters: Menu changes could directly impact customer behavior and sales. Expected answer: No significant changes to guacamole pricing or offering. Impact on approach: If changes were made, we'd focus on customer reaction to those changes.

• Looking at the sales data, I'm curious about the distribution of this decline. Is the 15% drop consistent across all locations, or are some regions more affected than others?

Why it matters: Regional variations could point to localized issues or supply chain problems. Expected answer: The decline varies by region, with some areas more affected than others. Impact on approach: We'd investigate region-specific factors if there's significant variation.

• Considering potential supply issues, has there been any change in the quality or availability of avocados or other guacamole ingredients in the past month?

Why it matters: Supply chain disruptions could affect product quality and availability. Expected answer: No significant changes in ingredient quality or availability. Impact on approach: If supply issues are present, we'd focus on sourcing and inventory management.

• Thinking about customer behavior, have you noticed any shifts in overall order patterns or preferences? For example, are customers opting for other side items instead of guacamole?

Why it matters: Changes in customer preferences could explain the decline in guacamole sales. Expected answer: Some shift in customer preferences towards other menu items. Impact on approach: We'd investigate marketing and menu positioning of guacamole if preferences have changed.