Why has CMG's guacamole add-on rate declined by 10% across all locations in the Southwest region during the past quarter?

Introduction

The decline in CMG's guacamole add-on rate by 10% across Southwest locations is a concerning trend that requires thorough investigation. To address this issue, I'll employ a systematic approach to identify, validate, and resolve the root cause while considering both immediate and long-term implications for the business.

Step 1

Clarifying Questions (3 minutes)

• Considering the specificity of the decline, I'm wondering about the baseline. What was the average guacamole add-on rate before the 10% decline?

Why it matters: Understanding the baseline helps contextualize the impact and severity of the decline. Expected answer: The previous add-on rate was around 30-35%. Impact on approach: A higher baseline might indicate a more significant problem, while a lower baseline could suggest a niche issue.

• Given the regional focus, I'm curious about any local events or changes. Have there been any significant local economic shifts or cultural events in the Southwest region during this period?

Why it matters: Regional factors could explain localized changes in consumer behavior. Expected answer: No major economic shifts, but there was a large avocado festival in the region. Impact on approach: This could lead to exploring how external events influence purchasing decisions.

• Thinking about product changes, has there been any modification to the guacamole recipe, portion size, or pricing in the last quarter?

Why it matters: Internal changes could directly impact customer perception and purchasing behavior. Expected answer: No changes to the recipe or portion size, but a slight price increase of $0.50. Impact on approach: This would shift focus to price sensitivity and value perception among customers.

• Considering potential system issues, has there been any change in how add-ons are tracked or reported in the POS system?

Why it matters: Technical issues could lead to misreporting of actual add-on rates. Expected answer: No changes to the POS system or reporting methods. Impact on approach: This would rule out technical errors and focus on actual customer behavior changes.