Why has Costco Wholesale's rotisserie chicken sales volume dropped by 15% over the past month?

Introduction

Costco's rotisserie chicken sales volume dropping by 15% over the past month is a significant concern that requires immediate attention. This analysis will systematically identify, validate, and address the root cause while considering both short-term and long-term implications for Costco's business.

I'll approach this issue by first clarifying key details, ruling out external factors, understanding the product and user journey, breaking down the metric, gathering relevant data, forming hypotheses, conducting root cause analysis, and finally proposing validation methods and next steps.

Step 1

Clarifying Questions (3 minutes)

• Looking at the timing, I'm thinking there might be seasonal factors at play. Has this 15% drop been compared to the same month last year?

Why it matters: Seasonal trends could explain the drop and influence our approach. Expected answer: Yes, it's been compared and is still significant. Impact on approach: If seasonal, we'd focus on why this year differs.

• Considering Costco's business model, I'm curious about membership trends. Have there been any notable changes in membership numbers or demographics recently?

Why it matters: Membership changes could directly impact sales volume. Expected answer: No significant changes in membership. Impact on approach: If membership stable, we'd look more at product-specific issues.

• Given the importance of pricing in Costco's strategy, I'm wondering if there have been any recent price adjustments for the rotisserie chicken or competing products?

Why it matters: Price changes could significantly affect consumer behavior. Expected answer: The $4.99 price point has remained constant. Impact on approach: If price unchanged, we'd focus on other factors affecting perceived value.

• Thinking about supply chain issues, have there been any changes in chicken sourcing or production capacity in the past few months?

Why it matters: Supply constraints could limit sales volume. Expected answer: No major supply chain disruptions reported. Impact on approach: If supply stable, we'd investigate demand-side factors more closely.

• Considering potential system issues, has there been any recent change in how sales are tracked or reported across Costco locations?

Why it matters: Ensures we're dealing with accurate data, not a reporting anomaly. Expected answer: No changes in sales tracking or reporting systems. Impact on approach: If systems unchanged, we'd focus on actual sales decline rather than data issues.