Why has the completion rate for the first lesson in Duolingo's French course declined from 85% to 70% in the last two weeks?

Introduction

The recent decline in Duolingo's French course first lesson completion rate from 85% to 70% over the past two weeks is a concerning trend that requires immediate attention. This analysis will systematically identify, validate, and address the root cause while considering both short-term fixes and long-term strategic implications.

Step 1

Clarifying Questions (3 minutes)

• Looking at the timing, I'm thinking there might have been a recent update. Has there been any change to the French course content or user interface in the last month?

Why it matters: Recent changes could directly impact user experience and completion rates. Expected answer: Yes, there was a minor update to the lesson structure. Impact on approach: If confirmed, we'd focus on analyzing the specific changes and their effects.

• Considering user segments, I'm curious about new vs. returning users. Has there been a shift in the ratio of new to returning users starting the French course?

Why it matters: Different user groups may have varying completion rates, affecting the overall metric. Expected answer: There's been a slight increase in new users. Impact on approach: We'd investigate onboarding processes and potential barriers for new users.

• Thinking about external factors, has there been any significant change in marketing campaigns or user acquisition channels?

Why it matters: Changes in user acquisition could bring in different user demographics or motivations. Expected answer: No major changes in marketing or acquisition. Impact on approach: We'd focus more on internal factors and user experience issues.

• Regarding data integrity, has there been any change in how the completion rate is measured or any known issues with the analytics system?

Why it matters: Ensures we're working with accurate data and not chasing a non-existent problem. Expected answer: No changes in measurement or known issues. Impact on approach: We'd proceed with confidence in the data's accuracy.