Why has the on-time delivery rate for HelloFresh's express shipping option fallen below 90% in the past week?

Introduction

The recent decline in HelloFresh's express shipping on-time delivery rate below 90% is a critical issue that demands immediate attention. This analysis will systematically investigate potential root causes, validate hypotheses, and propose targeted solutions to restore and improve delivery performance.

Step 1

Clarifying Questions (3 minutes)

• Looking at the timing, I'm thinking there might be a recent change in operations. Has HelloFresh implemented any new processes or technologies in the past month?

Why it matters: Recent changes often correlate with performance shifts. Expected answer: Yes, a new routing algorithm was implemented. Impact on approach: If confirmed, we'd focus on technical and process-related hypotheses.

• Considering user segments, I'm curious about order volume distribution. Has there been a significant shift in order patterns or customer demographics recently?

Why it matters: Changes in order patterns can strain existing systems. Expected answer: There's been a 20% increase in orders from urban areas. Impact on approach: We'd investigate capacity issues in specific regions.

• Regarding performance metrics, I'm wondering about the definition of "on-time." Has the criteria for on-time delivery changed recently?

Why it matters: Metric definition changes can cause apparent performance drops. Expected answer: No changes to the definition. Impact on approach: We'd focus on actual delivery performance rather than measurement issues.

• Thinking about external factors, have there been any notable weather events or transportation disruptions in key delivery areas?

Why it matters: External factors can significantly impact delivery performance. Expected answer: Some minor weather issues, but nothing out of the ordinary. Impact on approach: We'd consider weather as a contributing factor but not the primary cause.