Why has KAYAK's flight search conversion rate dropped by 15% over the past month?

Introduction

KAYAK's flight search conversion rate dropping by 15% over the past month is a significant issue that requires immediate attention. This decline could have far-reaching implications for the company's revenue, market position, and user satisfaction. I'll approach this problem systematically, focusing on identifying potential root causes, validating hypotheses, and developing both short-term and long-term solutions.

Step 1

Clarifying Questions (3 minutes)

• Looking at the timing, I'm thinking there might be a seasonal factor at play. Has this 15% drop been compared to the same period last year?

Why it matters: Seasonal trends can significantly impact travel behavior. Expected answer: Yes, it's been compared and is still abnormal. Impact on approach: If seasonal, we'd focus on year-over-year comparisons rather than month-over-month.

• Considering the magnitude of the drop, I'm wondering if it's affecting all user segments equally. Have we seen any particular user groups (e.g., business vs. leisure travelers) more impacted than others?

Why it matters: Different user segments may require tailored solutions. Expected answer: The drop is more pronounced among leisure travelers. Impact on approach: We'd prioritize investigating factors affecting leisure travel decisions.

• Given the potential for technical issues, I'm curious if there have been any recent changes to the search algorithm or user interface. Have any significant updates been rolled out in the past month?

Why it matters: Recent changes could directly correlate with the conversion drop. Expected answer: A new flight filtering system was implemented three weeks ago. Impact on approach: We'd focus on the impact and user reception of this new feature.

• Considering external factors, I'm thinking about competitive landscape changes. Have any major competitors launched new features or pricing strategies recently?

Why it matters: Competitive moves could be drawing users away from KAYAK. Expected answer: No significant changes from major competitors. Impact on approach: We'd shift focus more towards internal factors and user experience issues.