Why has the average order value for Meituan-Dianping's food delivery decreased by 15% in the past month?

Introduction

The recent 15% decrease in average order value (AOV) for Meituan-Dianping's food delivery service is a significant concern that requires immediate attention. As we analyze this issue, we'll employ a systematic approach to identify, validate, and address the root cause, considering both short-term and long-term implications for the business.

Our analysis will follow a structured framework, beginning with clarifying questions to establish context, followed by a thorough examination of external factors, product understanding, metric breakdown, and data-driven hypothesis formation. We'll then conduct a root cause analysis, propose validation methods, and outline a comprehensive resolution plan.

Step 1

Clarifying Questions (3 minutes)

• I'm noticing the timeframe is quite short. Has there been any significant product change or promotion in the past month?

Why it matters: Recent changes could directly impact AOV. Expected answer: Yes, we launched a new user interface last month. Impact on approach: If confirmed, we'd focus on UI/UX issues affecting order size.

• Given the 15% decrease, are we seeing a shift in order composition or just lower-priced items?

Why it matters: This helps distinguish between changes in user behavior vs. pricing strategy. Expected answer: We're seeing fewer add-ons per order. Impact on approach: We'd investigate the visibility and promotion of add-on items.

• Has there been any change in the mix of restaurants or cuisines available on the platform recently?

Why it matters: Changes in restaurant offerings could affect ordering patterns and AOV. Expected answer: We've added more budget-friendly options in the past quarter. Impact on approach: We'd analyze the impact of new restaurant additions on overall AOV.

• Are we observing this decrease across all user segments, or is it more pronounced in specific groups?

Why it matters: Helps identify if this is a universal trend or specific to certain user types. Expected answer: The decrease is more significant among our frequent users. Impact on approach: We'd focus on understanding changes in loyal customer behavior.

• Have there been any recent changes in competitor pricing or promotions that might be influencing our market?

Why it matters: External market forces could be driving changes in user behavior. Expected answer: Our main competitor launched an aggressive discount campaign last month. Impact on approach: We'd consider competitive pricing strategies in our analysis.