Why has the cancellation rate for Urban Company's plumbing appointments increased from 5% to 15% over the past two weeks?

Introduction

The recent spike in Urban Company's plumbing appointment cancellation rate from 5% to 15% over the past two weeks is a critical issue that demands immediate attention. This sudden increase could significantly impact customer satisfaction, service provider utilization, and overall business performance. To address this problem, I'll employ a systematic approach to identify, validate, and resolve the root cause while considering both short-term fixes and long-term strategic implications.

Step 1

Clarifying Questions (3 minutes)

• Looking at the timing, I'm thinking there might be a recent change in the booking process. Has there been any update to the app or website in the last month?

Why it matters: Recent changes could directly impact user behavior. Expected answer: Yes, there was a minor UI update. Impact on approach: If confirmed, we'd focus on UI/UX issues in our analysis.

• Considering the magnitude of the increase, I'm wondering about seasonal factors. Are we comparing to the same period last year, and if so, was there a similar trend?

Why it matters: Seasonal patterns could explain the fluctuation. Expected answer: No significant seasonal trend observed in previous years. Impact on approach: If confirmed, we'd rule out seasonality and focus on recent changes.

• Given the specific service type, I'm curious about the supply side. Has there been any change in the number or availability of plumbers in the past month?

Why it matters: Supply constraints could lead to increased cancellations. Expected answer: No significant change in plumber availability. Impact on approach: If confirmed, we'd shift focus to demand-side issues.

• Thinking about potential data anomalies, I'd like to confirm the definition of 'cancellation'. Has there been any change in how cancellations are tracked or defined in the system?

Why it matters: Ensures we're comparing apples to apples in our data analysis. Expected answer: No change in cancellation definition or tracking. Impact on approach: If confirmed, we can trust the data and focus on real-world factors.