Why has the click-through rate for credit card offers on Credit Karma dropped 15% in the last month?

Introduction

The recent 15% drop in click-through rate for credit card offers on Credit Karma is a concerning trend that requires immediate attention. As we dive into this product root cause analysis, we'll systematically examine potential factors contributing to this decline, generate data-driven hypotheses, and develop a comprehensive plan to address the issue.

Step 1

Clarifying Questions (3 minutes)

• Looking at the timing, I'm thinking there might be seasonality at play. Has this 15% drop been compared to the same period last year?

Why it matters: Seasonal patterns could explain the fluctuation and inform our approach. Expected answer: Yes, it's been compared and is still significant. Impact on approach: If seasonal, we'd focus on year-over-year trends rather than month-to-month.

• Considering user segments, I'm curious if this decline is uniform across all user groups. Have we seen any particular demographic or credit score range more affected?

Why it matters: Identifying specific affected segments could point to targeted issues. Expected answer: The decline is more pronounced in users with credit scores below 650. Impact on approach: We'd investigate factors specifically impacting this user segment.

• Thinking about recent changes, have there been any updates to the credit card offer algorithm or UI in the last 1-2 months?

Why it matters: Recent changes could directly correlate with the CTR drop. Expected answer: A minor UI update was implemented 6 weeks ago. Impact on approach: We'd scrutinize the impact of this UI change on user behavior.

• Considering market conditions, has there been any significant change in the credit card offers available through Credit Karma?

Why it matters: Changes in offer quality or quantity could affect user interest. Expected answer: No major changes in offer volume or types. Impact on approach: We'd focus more on internal factors or user perception issues.