What caused the sudden 30% decrease in Agoda's "Book Now, Pay Later" option usage among European travelers last week?

Introduction

The sudden 30% decrease in Agoda's "Book Now, Pay Later" option usage among European travelers last week is a critical issue that demands immediate attention. This analysis will systematically identify, validate, and address the root cause while considering both short-term and long-term implications for Agoda's business in Europe.

I'll approach this problem by first clarifying key details, ruling out external factors, and then diving deep into product understanding, metric breakdown, and data analysis. From there, I'll form hypotheses, conduct root cause analysis, and propose validation methods and solutions.

Step 1

Clarifying Questions (3 minutes)

• Looking at the timing, I'm thinking this could be related to a recent product change. Has there been any update to the "Book Now, Pay Later" feature in the past month?

Why it matters: Recent changes often correlate with sudden metric shifts. Expected answer: Yes, there was a minor UI update two weeks ago. Impact on approach: If confirmed, I'd focus on analyzing the impact of this change.

• Given the specificity to European travelers, I'm wondering about regional factors. Have there been any significant economic or regulatory changes in Europe recently?

Why it matters: Regional external factors could explain the localized impact. Expected answer: No major changes, but there's been some media coverage about travel-related fraud. Impact on approach: If true, I'd investigate how this might affect user trust in delayed payment options.

• Considering the 30% decrease, I'm curious about the baseline. What was the typical usage rate of this option before the decrease?

Why it matters: Understanding the baseline helps gauge the severity of the issue. Expected answer: About 40% of European bookings used this option. Impact on approach: This would help quantify the impact and prioritize the issue.

• Thinking about user segments, I'm wondering if this affects all types of European travelers equally. Do we see any differences based on factors like age, destination, or booking value?

Why it matters: Segmentation could reveal more specific causes or user behaviors. Expected answer: The decrease is more pronounced among younger travelers and for higher-value bookings. Impact on approach: This would guide our investigation towards specific user groups and use cases.