What factors are contributing to the sudden 15% decrease in new family tree creations on Ancestry's mobile app this quarter?

Introduction

The sudden 15% decrease in new family tree creations on Ancestry's mobile app this quarter is a critical issue that demands immediate attention. This metric is a key indicator of user engagement and directly impacts the core value proposition of Ancestry's service. To address this problem, I'll employ a systematic approach to identify, validate, and resolve the root cause while considering both short-term fixes and long-term strategic implications.

Step 1

Clarifying Questions (3 minutes)

• Looking at the timing, I'm thinking there might be a seasonal component. Has this 15% decrease been compared to the same quarter last year?

Why it matters: Seasonal trends could explain the fluctuation and impact our approach. Expected answer: Yes, it's been compared and is still significant. Impact on approach: If seasonal, we'd focus on year-over-year comparisons rather than quarter-over-quarter.

• Considering user segments, I'm curious if this decrease is uniform across all user groups. Have we seen any particular demographic or user type more affected?

Why it matters: Identifying specific affected groups could point to targeted issues. Expected answer: The decrease is more pronounced among new users. Impact on approach: We'd prioritize onboarding and first-time user experience in our investigation.

• Thinking about recent changes, has there been any significant update to the app or family tree feature in the last quarter?

Why it matters: Recent changes could directly correlate with the metric decrease. Expected answer: A minor UI update was implemented two months ago. Impact on approach: We'd closely examine the impact of this update on user behavior.

• Regarding data integrity, has there been any change in how we track or define "new family tree creations"?

Why it matters: Ensures we're comparing apples to apples in our metrics. Expected answer: No changes in tracking or definition. Impact on approach: Confirms the issue is with user behavior, not data collection.