How can we explain the 30% decline in Ancestry's newspaper archive subscriptions compared to the same period last year?

Introduction

The 30% decline in Ancestry's newspaper archive subscriptions compared to the same period last year is a significant issue that requires thorough investigation. To address this problem, I'll employ a systematic approach to identify, validate, and address the root cause while considering both immediate and long-term implications for the product and business.

Step 1

Clarifying Questions (3 minutes)

• Looking at the timing, I'm thinking there might be seasonality at play. Has this 30% decline been consistent across all months, or is it more pronounced in certain periods?

Why it matters: Seasonal patterns could indicate external factors rather than product issues. Expected answer: The decline is relatively consistent across months. Impact on approach: If seasonal, we'd focus on year-over-year comparisons and external factors.

• Considering user segments, I'm curious about the churn rate. Has there been a significant increase in cancellations, or is this decline primarily due to fewer new subscriptions?

Why it matters: This helps pinpoint whether the issue is with acquisition or retention. Expected answer: There's a mix of increased cancellations and fewer new subscriptions. Impact on approach: We'd tailor our strategy to focus on either retention or acquisition, depending on the answer.

• Thinking about recent changes, have there been any significant updates to the newspaper archive feature or pricing in the last year?

Why it matters: Product or pricing changes could directly impact user behavior. Expected answer: Some minor UI updates, but no major feature or pricing changes. Impact on approach: If there were changes, we'd investigate their impact; if not, we'd look at other factors.

• Considering data integrity, has there been any change in how subscriptions are tracked or reported in the last year?

Why it matters: Ensures we're comparing apples to apples in our metrics. Expected answer: No changes in tracking or reporting methods. Impact on approach: If there were changes, we'd need to adjust our analysis to account for them.