What caused the sudden 30% decrease in ARPDAU for Unity Ads' rewarded video ads in our top-grossing game?

Introduction

The sudden 30% decrease in ARPDAU for Unity Ads' rewarded video ads in our top-grossing game is a critical issue that demands immediate attention. This analysis will systematically identify, validate, and address the root cause while considering both short-term and long-term implications for our product and business.

I'll approach this problem by first clarifying key details, ruling out external factors, and then diving deep into our product, user journey, and metrics. From there, I'll generate data-driven hypotheses, conduct root cause analysis, and propose validation methods and solutions.

Step 1

Clarifying Questions (3 minutes)

• Looking at the timing, I'm thinking this could be related to a recent update. When was the last time we pushed changes to the rewarded video ad system?

Why it matters: Recent changes often correlate with performance shifts. Expected answer: A specific date within the last month. Impact on approach: If recent, we'll focus on change-related hypotheses; if not, we'll explore broader issues.

• I'm curious about the user segments affected. Has this decrease been uniform across all user groups, or are certain segments more impacted?

Why it matters: Helps narrow down potential causes and target our investigation. Expected answer: Variation in impact across user segments. Impact on approach: Will guide our data analysis and hypothesis formation.

• Considering potential technical issues, have we seen any changes in ad load times or error rates recently?

Why it matters: Technical problems can significantly impact ad performance. Expected answer: Some fluctuation in technical metrics. Impact on approach: If yes, we'll prioritize technical hypotheses; if no, we'll focus more on user behavior or content issues.

• I'm wondering about the content of the ads. Have there been any significant changes in the types of ads being served or their relevance to our user base?

Why it matters: Ad content directly affects user engagement and ARPDAU. Expected answer: Some changes in ad content or targeting. Impact on approach: If yes, we'll investigate content-related hypotheses; if no, we'll look more at system or user behavior issues.