What factors are causing the sudden 30% decrease in new user signups for Wolt's food delivery app over the last two weeks?

Introduction

The sudden 30% decrease in new user signups for Wolt's food delivery app over the last two weeks is a critical issue that demands immediate attention. This analysis will systematically identify, validate, and address the root cause while considering both short-term and long-term implications for Wolt's business.

I'll approach this problem by first clarifying key details, ruling out external factors, and then diving deep into internal metrics and user behavior. My goal is to pinpoint the most likely causes and propose actionable solutions to reverse this trend.

Step 1

Clarifying Questions (3 minutes)

• Looking at the timing, I'm thinking there might be a recent app update or change. Has there been any significant app update or feature release in the past month?

Why it matters: Recent changes often correlate with sudden metric shifts. Expected answer: Yes, a major UI overhaul was released three weeks ago. Impact on approach: If confirmed, I'd focus on user experience and onboarding flow changes.

• Considering user segments, I'm curious about the geographic distribution. Is this decrease uniform across all markets, or are some regions more affected?

Why it matters: Localized issues might point to specific market factors or technical problems. Expected answer: The decrease is more pronounced in newer markets. Impact on approach: I'd investigate market-specific factors and localization issues.

• Thinking about competitive landscape, have there been any major moves by competitors recently, like aggressive promotions or new feature launches?

Why it matters: Competitor actions can significantly impact user acquisition. Expected answer: A major competitor launched a 50% off promotion two weeks ago. Impact on approach: I'd analyze our competitive positioning and consider short-term promotional strategies.

• Regarding data integrity, I'm wondering about our tracking systems. Have there been any changes to how we track or define new user signups?

Why it matters: Metric definition changes can create false alarms. Expected answer: No changes to tracking or definitions. Impact on approach: If confirmed, I'd focus on actual user behavior changes rather than data anomalies.