Why has Wolt's order completion rate dropped by 15% for restaurant deliveries in the past month?

Introduction

Wolt's 15% drop in order completion rate for restaurant deliveries is a critical issue that demands immediate attention. This analysis will systematically identify, validate, and address the root cause while considering both short-term fixes and long-term strategic implications.

Step 1

Clarifying Questions (3 minutes)

• Looking at the timing, I'm thinking there might be a seasonal effect. Has this drop coincided with any major holidays or events in Wolt's key markets?

Why it matters: Seasonal factors could explain temporary fluctuations. Expected answer: No significant seasonal events. Impact on approach: If seasonal, we'd focus on temporary adjustments rather than systemic changes.

• Considering user segments, I'm wondering if this affects all customer types equally. Have we seen any differences in completion rates between new and returning customers?

Why it matters: Helps identify if the issue is related to onboarding or loyalty. Expected answer: The drop is more pronounced among new users. Impact on approach: If new users are more affected, we'd prioritize onboarding and first-time user experience improvements.

• Thinking about recent changes, I'm curious if there have been any significant updates to the app or backend systems in the past month?

Why it matters: Recent changes could be directly causing the issue. Expected answer: A new version of the app was released three weeks ago. Impact on approach: If a recent update is involved, we'd focus on rollback or hotfix strategies.

• Considering the metric itself, I'm wondering if there have been any changes to how we calculate or track order completion rates?

Why it matters: Ensures we're comparing apples to apples. Expected answer: No changes to the metric calculation. Impact on approach: If the metric has changed, we'd need to reassess our baseline and potentially adjust our targets.