How can we explain the unexpected 25% decline in Outschool's Flex course enrollments compared to the same period last year?

Introduction

The unexpected 25% decline in Outschool's Flex course enrollments compared to the same period last year is a significant issue that requires thorough investigation. To address this problem, I'll employ a systematic approach to identify, validate, and address the root cause while considering both immediate and long-term implications for Outschool's product strategy.

Step 1

Clarifying Questions (3 minutes)

• Looking at the timing, I'm thinking there might be seasonality at play. Has this decline been consistent across all months, or is it more pronounced in certain periods?

Why it matters: Seasonal patterns could explain fluctuations and help focus our investigation. Expected answer: The decline is relatively consistent across months. Impact on approach: If seasonal, we'd need to adjust for cyclical patterns in our analysis.

• Considering user segments, I'm curious about the impact across different course categories. Are all subject areas experiencing similar declines, or are some more affected than others?

Why it matters: This helps identify if the issue is systemic or category-specific. Expected answer: The decline varies across categories, with some more affected than others. Impact on approach: We'd focus on the most impacted categories and investigate category-specific factors.

• Thinking about recent changes, have there been any significant updates to the Flex course platform or pricing model in the past year?

Why it matters: Product changes could directly impact user behavior and enrollment rates. Expected answer: A new pricing structure was implemented six months ago. Impact on approach: We'd analyze the impact of pricing changes on enrollment patterns.

• Considering external factors, has there been any shift in marketing spend or strategy for Flex courses compared to last year?

Why it matters: Changes in marketing efforts could affect visibility and enrollment rates. Expected answer: Marketing spend has remained consistent, but there's been a shift in channel focus. Impact on approach: We'd evaluate the effectiveness of different marketing channels on enrollment.