What caused the sudden 30% decrease in Expedia's flight search volume last week?

Introduction

A sudden 30% decrease in Expedia's flight search volume is a critical issue that demands immediate attention and thorough analysis. This significant drop could have far-reaching implications for the company's revenue, user engagement, and market position. I'll approach this problem systematically, focusing on identifying the root cause, validating hypotheses, and developing both short-term fixes and long-term strategies to address the issue.

Step 1

Clarifying Questions (3 minutes)

• Looking at the timing, I'm thinking this could be a seasonal trend. Has this 30% decrease been compared to the same period last year?

Why it matters: Seasonal patterns can significantly impact travel search behavior. Expected answer: Yes, it has been compared, and this decrease is unusual for this time of year. Impact on approach: If confirmed, we'll focus on non-seasonal factors.

• Considering potential technical issues, have there been any recent updates to the flight search algorithm or UI?

Why it matters: Technical changes can often lead to unexpected user behavior shifts. Expected answer: A minor UI update was rolled out two weeks ago. Impact on approach: This could narrow our focus to recent changes and their potential unintended consequences.

• Thinking about user segments, is this decrease uniform across all user types, or is it more pronounced in specific groups?

Why it matters: Understanding affected segments can help pinpoint the cause and tailor solutions. Expected answer: The decrease is more significant among mobile users. Impact on approach: We'd prioritize investigating mobile-specific issues and user experience.

• Considering external factors, have there been any major changes in flight pricing or availability from partner airlines recently?

Why it matters: External market conditions can dramatically affect search behavior. Expected answer: No significant changes reported from airline partners. Impact on approach: We'd focus more on internal factors and user experience issues.