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Introduction
The 30% decrease in new user sign-ups through Vivino's app referral program last week is a significant issue that requires immediate attention. To address this problem, I'll employ a systematic approach to identify, validate, and resolve the root cause while considering both short-term and long-term implications.
Framework overview
This analysis follows a structured approach covering issue identification, hypothesis generation, validation, and solution development.
Step 1
Clarifying Questions (3 minutes)
Why it matters: Recent changes often correlate with sudden metric shifts. Expected answer: Yes, there was a minor UI update. Impact on approach: If confirmed, I'd focus on UI-related hypotheses.
Why it matters: Helps narrow down potential causes and affected user segments. Expected answer: The decrease is more pronounced among younger users. Impact on approach: I'd investigate factors specifically affecting younger users' engagement.
Why it matters: External factors can significantly impact user behavior. Expected answer: No major changes in the competitive landscape. Impact on approach: I'd focus more on internal factors if external influences are minimal.
Why it matters: Changes in incentives can directly impact user motivation to refer. Expected answer: The referral rewards remained the same. Impact on approach: If unchanged, I'd look at other aspects of the referral process or user experience.
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