What caused the 30% decrease in new user sign-ups through Vivino's app referral program last week?

Introduction

The 30% decrease in new user sign-ups through Vivino's app referral program last week is a significant issue that requires immediate attention. To address this problem, I'll employ a systematic approach to identify, validate, and resolve the root cause while considering both short-term and long-term implications.

Step 1

Clarifying Questions (3 minutes)

• Looking at the timing, I'm thinking this could be a recent change. Has there been any update to the referral program or app in the past two weeks?

Why it matters: Recent changes often correlate with sudden metric shifts. Expected answer: Yes, there was a minor UI update. Impact on approach: If confirmed, I'd focus on UI-related hypotheses.

• Considering user segments, I'm curious about the distribution. Are we seeing this decrease across all user demographics or is it concentrated in specific groups?

Why it matters: Helps narrow down potential causes and affected user segments. Expected answer: The decrease is more pronounced among younger users. Impact on approach: I'd investigate factors specifically affecting younger users' engagement.

• Thinking about external factors, has there been any significant competitor activity or market changes in the wine industry recently?

Why it matters: External factors can significantly impact user behavior. Expected answer: No major changes in the competitive landscape. Impact on approach: I'd focus more on internal factors if external influences are minimal.

• Regarding the referral mechanism, has there been any change in the incentive structure or reward system for referrals?

Why it matters: Changes in incentives can directly impact user motivation to refer. Expected answer: The referral rewards remained the same. Impact on approach: If unchanged, I'd look at other aspects of the referral process or user experience.