Estimate the Number of Self-Driving Cars

Clarify the Question (2-3 minutes)

• Market/User Focus: This appears to be a market estimation question focusing on the adoption of self-driving cars.

Looking at the estimation context, I'm thinking we need to define the scope of "self-driving cars." Would you say we're focusing on fully autonomous (Level 5) vehicles, or including partially autonomous (Level 3-4) as well?

Why it matters: Impacts the potential market size and adoption rate Expected answer: Include Level 3-4 autonomous vehicles Impact on approach: Broader market, faster adoption curve

Considering the global nature of the automotive industry, are we estimating worldwide numbers, or focusing on a specific region like North America or Europe?

Why it matters: Affects total addressable market and regional adoption rates Expected answer: Worldwide estimate Impact on approach: Need to account for varying adoption rates and regulations across regions

Given the evolving nature of self-driving technology, should we estimate the number of self-driving cars at a specific future point (e.g., 5 years from now) or the current number?

Why it matters: Determines whether to factor in growth projections and future technological advancements Expected answer: Estimate 5 years from now Impact on approach: Include growth rates and technology adoption curves